Pick report
2026-09-14-under-43-5
Permanent public record. Pregame analysis, issued line, odds, units, and timestamp never change. Result, close, and CLV append after the game.
- Issued odds
- -110
- Book
- DraftKings
- Stake
- 1.00u
Market tape
Fair, consensus, and best available are separate from the issued ticket. Playability can move to MARGINAL or NO LONGER PLAYABLE as the market moves; the official pick does not change.
Min playable: 43.5 / -110 · PLAYABLE · model v1
Don fair
No fair line stored
Consensus
No provider tape yet
Best available
No provider tape yet
Issued (immutable)
43.5 / -110
DraftKings · 2026-09-14
Current
No later snapshot yet
Close
No closing number logged
Public betting
Raw context only. One-sided tickets do not create a bet and are not an automatic fade. Source: VSiN NFL Betting Splits (DraftKings) — Action Network total % not in public scrape; Oddsshark timed out.
- Home tickets / money
- — / —
- Away tickets / money
- — / —
- Over tickets / money
- 51% / 55%
- Under tickets / money
- 49% / 45%
- Money − tickets
- +4 · Over
- Open → current
- 42.5 → 43.5 (1)
- Move vs public
- up · agrees yes · RLM no
- Ticket bucket
- Tickets < 60% one side
DK: Over 51% bets / 55% money. Circa (same VSiN article): Over 37% bets / 57% money. Our issued ticket is Under 43.5.
Open position. Grade after the event; do not rewrite this ticket.
Information uncertaintyWeek 1 variance remains; Mahomes usage unknown until kickoff. Edge is convergent structural factors vs -110, not a lock.
- Mahomes first game back from ACL/LCL with no preseason; Bo Nix also reintegrating post-ankle — structural score suppression
- KC LT Josh Simmons OUT; DEN pass rush vs exposed blindside
- Last 6 DEN–KC games finished 41 or under, avg ~33.7
- Mid-80s, ~14 mph wind / gusts near 30, dry — clips deep ball and FG range
- SportsLine/CBS models project ~40; total stable near 43.5 with board leaning Under
Total · posted 2026-09-14T19:15:44.567Z · report /picks/2026-09-14-under-43-5 · X not connected