Research DB

Candidates

Strongest wagers Don evaluated and did not make official. PASS means evaluated and not taken. WATCH keeps the target line/odds that would qualify. These are research records, not tickets. Sep 14 2026 stores the three MNF/MLB spots that failed the threshold — not wins, not implied future plays.

  1. NFLSpreadPass

    DEN +2.5

    DEN @ KC

    Line
    2.5
    Odds
    Est. / implied
    /
    Est. edge

    No verified CLV edge. Week 1 variance and thin historical ATS reads are not a number. Pass.

    Source: research-notes

    week-1-variancethin-historical-samplenarrativeline-movement

    Public betting

    No reliable ticket % or handle % logged. The Odds API does not supply these figures; a separate provider is required. Percentages are never invented.

  2. NFLTotalPass

    Under 43.5

    DEN @ KC

    Line
    43.5
    Odds
    Est. / implied
    /
    Est. edge

    No verified CLV edge on the MNF total. Week 1 scoring variance. Pass.

    Source: research-notes

    week-1-varianceno-verified-clv

    Public betting

    No reliable ticket % or handle % logged. The Odds API does not supply these figures; a separate provider is required. Percentages are never invented.

  3. MLBMLPass

    DET ML

    DET @ TOR

    Line
    Odds
    +110
    Est. / implied
    / 47.6%
    Est. edge

    Research notes had DET ML around +110/+115 (not a booked price). Pythagorean / season-to-date strength is not next-game EV, and there was no verified CLV edge. Pass.

    Source: research-notes

    pythagorean-not-next-game-evno-verified-clv

    Public betting

    No reliable ticket % or handle % logged. The Odds API does not supply these figures; a separate provider is required. Percentages are never invented.

  4. NFLSpreadPass

    DEN +2.5

    DEN @ KC

    Line
    2.5
    Odds
    -105
    Est. / implied
    53.0% / 51.2%
    Est. edge
    +1.8pp

    Legitimate alt but Week 1/Arrowhead variance; Under has higher hit-rate profile tonight

    Source: FanDuel

    divisional-dogpublic-ticket-vs-money

    Public betting

    No reliable ticket % or handle % logged. The Odds API does not supply these figures; a separate provider is required. Percentages are never invented.

  5. NFLMLPass

    DEN ML

    DEN @ KC

    Line
    Odds
    +130
    Est. / implied
    42.0% / 43.5%
    Est. edge
    −1.5pp

    Needs outright win; lower hit rate than +2.5 or Under

    Source: DraftKings

    divisional-dog

    Public betting

    No reliable ticket % or handle % logged. The Odds API does not supply these figures; a separate provider is required. Percentages are never invented.

  6. MLBMLPass

    SD ML

    SD @ COL

    Line
    Odds
    -185
    Est. / implied
    65.0% / 64.9%
    Est. edge
    +0.1pp

    Heavy juice; Coors variance; price approx model — no edge

    Source: DraftKings

    starting-pitcher

    Public betting

    No reliable ticket % or handle % logged. The Odds API does not supply these figures; a separate provider is required. Percentages are never invented.